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Political shell games never pay out
I didn't get the chance to include this the other day in the sidebar about veteran GOP Sen. Arlen Specter switching parties (again) but Springfield Republican Party head Mike Puppio pointed out - and I have to agree - that gaining Specter is no win for the Democrats.
In fact, it could very easily become a loss when all is said and done next November.
The reasoning basically goes like this: Pat Toomey, the strongest current contender for the GOP nomination in the 2010 race, potentially could have beat Specter in the primary. But anyone the Democrats put up (short of Baby Huey) would likely take out Toomey in November.
Result: 100 percent, full-blooded Democrat taking over for Specter in 2011.
With Specter's switch, however (plus swift backing from the Dems, who already say they won't endorse another candidate) Toomey can stop playing to the ultraconservatives and move more to the middle, while hammering Specter on his principles (or lack thereof) over the party switch.
Toomey, who many regard as a raving lunatic, is undeniably out of step with Republicans in the Southeast, but he could find a good deal of support from conservatives in the west on those two prongs alone. Compound that with Delco Democratic Party leader Cliff Wilson's observation that Specter could lose votes from new, young Democrats and independents if they see his switch as simple political self-preservation (which, you know, duh) and the odds of the seat remaining GOP would be at least even.
On top of that, if Republicans were to run someone like, say, Tom Ridge, who could defeat Toomey in the primary standing on his head, Specter could be in real trouble.
Result: 100 percent, full-blooded Republican taking over for Specter in 2011.
Now, let's say Specter somehow mystically wins out in November against whomever (which is entirely possible, though not full-on plausible).
Result: 40 percent Democrat taking over for a 60 percent Republican (himself) in 2011.
So, as Mike asked, what did Democrats really gain?
Not a whole hell of a lot, it would seem.
On a completely unrelated note, today marks Obama's 100th day in office. The television program "Lost" also airs its 100th episode tonight on ABC. Coincidence? Or do you get the feeling Obama wasn't supposed to leave the island?
In fact, it could very easily become a loss when all is said and done next November.
The reasoning basically goes like this: Pat Toomey, the strongest current contender for the GOP nomination in the 2010 race, potentially could have beat Specter in the primary. But anyone the Democrats put up (short of Baby Huey) would likely take out Toomey in November.
Result: 100 percent, full-blooded Democrat taking over for Specter in 2011.
With Specter's switch, however (plus swift backing from the Dems, who already say they won't endorse another candidate) Toomey can stop playing to the ultraconservatives and move more to the middle, while hammering Specter on his principles (or lack thereof) over the party switch.
Toomey, who many regard as a raving lunatic, is undeniably out of step with Republicans in the Southeast, but he could find a good deal of support from conservatives in the west on those two prongs alone. Compound that with Delco Democratic Party leader Cliff Wilson's observation that Specter could lose votes from new, young Democrats and independents if they see his switch as simple political self-preservation (which, you know, duh) and the odds of the seat remaining GOP would be at least even.
On top of that, if Republicans were to run someone like, say, Tom Ridge, who could defeat Toomey in the primary standing on his head, Specter could be in real trouble.
Result: 100 percent, full-blooded Republican taking over for Specter in 2011.
Now, let's say Specter somehow mystically wins out in November against whomever (which is entirely possible, though not full-on plausible).
Result: 40 percent Democrat taking over for a 60 percent Republican (himself) in 2011.
So, as Mike asked, what did Democrats really gain?
Not a whole hell of a lot, it would seem.
On a completely unrelated note, today marks Obama's 100th day in office. The television program "Lost" also airs its 100th episode tonight on ABC. Coincidence? Or do you get the feeling Obama wasn't supposed to leave the island?
posted by The Ayatollah of Rock N Rollah at
12:41 PM
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